Danielle Solzman
This past summer saw the release of Jonathan Mayo’s new book, Smart, Wrong, and Lucky: The Origin Stories of Baseball’s Unexpected Stars. Mayo’s book tackles the origin stories of Joey Votto, Shane Bieber, Jacob DeGrom, Mookie Betts, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Kinsler, Lorenzo Cain, and Albert Pujols in just over 200 pages and change.
Scouting is a very particular artform. It’s changed through the years as some scouting departments become more focused on the sabermetrics of it all. That’s not to say that there’s any right way to scout but Trouble with the Curve is a reminder that some scouts are able to see and feel what others don’t. As far as scouting movies go, it’s probably a better idea of how scouting works than The Scout is although the earlier film tackled mental health in sports long before it was ever an issue.
One of the fascinating things about reading this book is hearing from the scouts and coaches that saw these players play. One recurring theme comes in a scout keeping a player close to their chest. I have to laugh how the Cincinnati Reds scouting director and special assignment scout who followed and later drafted and signed Joey Votto would end up losing their jobs. This was back in the era where Jim Bowden was the Reds GM. And again, this is just one of many stories.
In some instances, a scout wouldn’t only connect with a ballplayer but they would provide pointers on how to improve their game. Many of the profiled players were drafted in the era where teams had a year to sign their draftees. It’s nothing like it is today. If a high school player was drafted and decided to play at JUCO rather than a four-year program, a team could draft and follow them. This has proven to be very beneficial for a number of players. In the event that they didn’t sign them, what happens is that players end up improving their draft stock for the following season.
As much as scouting is an art form, it is not a perfect science. Teams can only draft so many players per year. A high school phenom could very well end up becoming a bust after college, be it injuries or simply unable to translate their game to the Major League level. Jeremy Sowers is not profiled in the book but he’s a player who comes to mind. Everyone knew that he was going to play baseball for Vanderbilt but this didn’t stop the Reds from wasting their first round pick (20th overall) on Sowers in 2001. The now-Cleveland Guardians would take him in the first round (6th overall) of 2004. Sowers made his debut in June 2006 and played his last MLB game on October 2, 2009. His game just didn’t translate at the Major League level like it did in the minor leagues.
When one knows what the profiled players have done with their careers, it becomes mind-boggling how they were drafted so low. Albert Pujols is well on his way into the Baseball Hall of Fame but he didn’t get drafted until the 13th round! Meanwhile, Mookie Betts would be a first round pick today if one were to redo the 2011 MLB Draft all over again.
There are a few typos in the book. One can only hope that these typos will be fixed for the eventual paperback release. It doesn’t take away too much from the overall book but there are times while reading where numbers don’t make sense. Even with proofreading and such, typos are always bound to happen. It doesn’t take way from how insightful the book is when it comes to scouting baseball players and reading how just one scout can make a difference.
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